SFI = 131
A index = 6
K index = 2
SSN = 92
CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot AR3078 has developed an unstable delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for strong solar flares. NOAA forecasters say there is a 30% chance of M-class flares and a 10% chance of X-flares today. Any explosions will be geoeffective as the sunspot is almost directly facing Earth.
that poses a threat for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI
A CANNIBAL CME IS COMING: On Aug. 14th, a dark plasma eruption hurled one CME toward Earth. On Aug. 15th, an exploding magnetic filament launched another one right behind it. The two CMEs will arrive together on Aug.18th, according to the latest forecast model from NOAA:
This could be a “Cannibal CME” event. In other words, the second CME might overtake and gobble up the first, creating a mish-mash of the two. Cannibal CMEs contain tangled magnetic fields and compressed plasmas that can spark strong geomagnetic storms.
In this case, NOAA forecasters expect G1 (minor) to G2-class (moderate) geomagnetic storms. During such storms naked-eye auroras can descend into the USA as far south as New York and Idaho (geomagnetic latitude 55 degrees).
NOAA Alerts
Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 154
Issue Time: 2022 Aug 16 0816 UTC
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2022 Aug 16 0752 UTC
Maximum Time: 2022 Aug 16 0758 UTC
End Time: 2022 Aug 16 0805 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.0
Optical Class: na
Location: S24W08
NOAA Scale: R2 – Moderate
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio – Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.