INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES: Big sunspot AR3014 has an unstable ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic field that harbors energy for strong explosions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 35% chance of M-class solar flares and a 15% chance of X-flares on May 19th. Any eruptions will be geoeffective because the sunspot is directly facing Earth.
NOAA STI
:Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt
:Issued: 2022 May 19 0605 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
# Geophysical Alert Message
#
Solar-terrestrial indices for 18 May follow.
Solar flux 180 and estimated planetary A-index 7.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0600 UTC on 19 May was 3.
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.
No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.
NOAA Alerts
Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 159
Issue Time: 2022 May 19 0736 UTC
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2022 May 19 0700 UTC
Maximum Time: 2022 May 19 0719 UTC
End Time: 2022 May 19 0731 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.6
Optical Class: 2b
Location: N16E31
NOAA Scale: R2 – Moderate
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio – Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.
