CALM BEFORE THE STORM? The sun has been quiet for two days. Could it be the calm before the storm? Big sunspot AR3014 has an unstable ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic field that harbors energy for strong explosions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of M-class flares and a 5% chance of X-flares on May 23rd
NOAA STI
:Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt
:Issued: 2022 May 23 0910 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
# Geophysical Alert Message
#
Solar-terrestrial indices for 22 May follow.
Solar flux 165 and estimated planetary A-index 11.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0900 UTC on 23 May was 3.
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.
NOAA Alerts
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4107
Issue Time: 2022 May 22 1455 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4106
Valid From: 2022 May 22 0120 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2022 May 22 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents – Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora – Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
