Update: The sunspot *did* flare today. An X1.5 class explosion on May 10th (1355 UT) caused a radio backout over the Atlantic Ocean and may have hurled a complicated CME toward Earth.
X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: “Mixed-up” sunspot AR3006 (described below) exploded on May 10th (1355 UT), producing an intense X1.5-class solar flare. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:
Since the flare occurred, a mish-mash of CMEs has billowed away from the sun’s southern hemisphere. It is unclear if these CMEs are related to the X-flare or instead some other, lesser explosions that happened at almost the same time. There was a filament eruption to the right of the X-flare, and a C4-class solar flare in a different sunspot to the left. NOAA analysts are busy unraveling these events using computer models to determine if one of the CMEs might hit Earth. Stay tuned. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text
A MIXED-UP SUNSPOT: Sunspot AR3006 is having an identity crisis. It is supposed to have a +/- magnetic field. Mostly it does. But deep inside the sunspot’s primary core, the polarity is opposite: -/+. Note the circled region in this magnetic map of the sunspot from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory:
